“The state runs the street events in Serbia these days”, to quote myself from one of the previous posts, concerning Karadzic arrest as second, and Kosova independance as first big political events in Serbia’s political life this year of international importance.
In that same article, I made it clear that Premier Kostunica runs the state in a faithfull way to the heritage of Milosevic regime. I also smuggled in the idea (for those who read between the lines) that the existance of Democratic party of the President Tadic, more creates an illusion of having the opposite political mainstream to Kostunica’s nationalism (which is openly getting closer and closer to the Radical party /Seselj/Nikolic/ ideas), then it really opposes Kostunica. The warm-cold relation of Kostunica and Tadic I named a “media marriage” some years ago, because no matter how much Tadic would represent more liberal and democratic option, by its moderate character, that option was not to far from Kostunica’s, and each time Tadic would oppose Kostunica, some “higher cause” would tie them into a common statement, a common attitude, a coherent stand point of Serbia’s officials in front of the international comunity. Kostunica was the strong one in that game, and Tadic a disapointment to true democrates. Never the less, united they stood too many times over too many issues. And now we have the situation of Tadic being under death threats because of the Karadzic arrest and his inevitable delivery to the Hague Tribunal. Let me remind us: all officials, including Kostunica, were repeatedly claiming to the West that Serbia was doing its best to cooperate with the Tribunal in the Hague and to capture and deliver Serbian wanted war criminals.
So how shall I comprehend the situation in which Tadic is put under severe death threats, and Kostunica is not? Even the blind can see that threats come from the part of the Radicals. Radical party members do not miss a chance to prove it in every public speach or statement they give these days. Why Tadic? Hasn’t he played a decent role in not preventing Kostunica’s retrograde politics ever? Was it all together not working in favour of the will of Kostunica and the Radicals? In fact it was.
There are several possible answers to the main question: Why is Tadic picked to be threatened? One would be that the game is just going on, and we are led to believe that there is some crucial disagreement between Kostunica and Tadic. This answer would offer a safe future to Tadic, in case he himself is aware of it, as part of an open deal or silent understanding, where everybody keeps their roles, and the built up tension makes the fals division into less and more democratic options stronger, or helps the illusion live on. Yet, death threats in Serbia are never to be undermined! Too many political executions or murders have been commited not just in the past, in the 90ies, but also after the democratic changes! The brutal assassination of Premier Djindjic is more then enough to consider each threath seriously.
Now, I cannot resist mentioning that another politician has been not only threatened after the changes, but there have been some attempts to in fact murder him just before the changes! He was the number one for execution after Djindjic, by the same forces and political streams inspiring those forces that commited Djindjic assassination. That politician is Cedomir Jovanovic. In times of the attempt to murder him, the public issue became not the safety of his and his family’s lives, but “how did he get that expensive jeep that was blown up with a bomb?” So, instead of investigating on who tried to kill him, authorities and police instructed citizens to mind Jovanovic’s economic standard! Ofcourse, Jovanovic had no media access nor opportunity at that time to say “hey, let’s talk about the danger I am exposed to and see who is trying to kill me”, not to speak about his lack of possibility to tell to public that he had very fiew belongings, and that for safety reasons he was driving borowed cars, changing them regularely as well as places of his residence, all offered by his friends or other Democratic party members (he was in Djinjinn’s party then), just to protect his family’s lives and his own! After the democratic changes, the preasure on him never stopped, yet never became a public concern, although he was in Djindjic’s government and threatened openly as the next one for execution! Jovanovic still doesn’t have the permanent residence, since threats never stopped. So he and his family move around from one house to an other all the time through out the years, to stay alive, which never became public concern! He left the Democratic Party and formed Liberal Democratic Party, still small, yet atracking most progressiv civic, liberal, democratic and socialdemocratic oriented prominent political names and leaders, as well as educated young generation left oriented and willing to start the process of dealing with the past/war crimes and dealing with organized crime in Serbia.
Why is the years long death treath or a campaign for murdering Cedomir Jovanovic atracting less publicity then these days threats to Tadic? Again, threats to Tadic may be another game instructed by Kostunica, with the same purpose to prove that there is an opponent to him and to the right wing (formal or informal) coalition, and that that opponent is strong and supported with a lot of voters. The question that remains is: how much Tadic himself is taking knowledge in this game of Kostunica? Does he really feel threatened, or is he aware that this campaign is reestablishing old false division, the invented dilema Democratic party or Democratic pary of Serbia? If there was a straight answer to that, we would know already the outcome. In any way, we would know weather the “media marriage” is still on, or divorced.
But that I cannot tell just yet. I repeat, threats with political assassinations are not a joke in Serbia. My opinion is, though, that these intensive threats are designed to strengthen the myth of deep differences among the two democratic parties (or so called democratic), after all.
I do not end here. I think I find Kostunica’s logics transparent by now. Even by purposly using the occasion to once again promote the Democratic party as his opponent, and even if the Democrates are aware of it and wellcome it for the sake of their own image of softer political option (which it is only declaratevly, in result, let’s face it!), and even though this partnership suits both sides, in this once upon a time “Cohabitation” as Tadic named it, I keep wondering: how far will Kostunica let it go this time? I wouldn’t be surprised if Kostunica sacrifyes his paravan and lets Tadic hit the bullet! This prognozes is the darkest of all, but provides Kostunica with the main and only position among the big parties (or both) that carriy the name Democratic, wich in itself may easily include the sudden distance to the hard core right wing Radicals, (why not make new coalitions with the minor parties that he can easily swollow), and thus insures himself the main negotiating position wanted and recognized by the West. Shortly, he would become what Milosevic was in his glory times: the guarantee of stability in the region! This may not be a short time intention, but a long, slow, sly plan. Well announced, too, providing time to hide facts and traces – even I in this text of assumption haven’t named any, I was just following the logics of Kostunica that I know! What a future?